Why rupee slipped past 93/$ today: 3 triggers every investor should track
April 21, 2026
The Indian rupee slips past 93 per US dollar amid RBI policy tweaks, US-Iran tensions, and rising crude oil prices. Here are 3 key triggers investors should track.
Traders said that the currency logged one of its sharpest weekly falls amid resurfaced escalation between the US and Iran. The currency has been in focus after the RBI’s partial rollback of restrictions on currency trade.
Here are the three major factors that are impacting the currency’s movement today –
1. RBI relaxed foreign exchange derivative rules
On Monday, the RBI partially rolled back restrictions on rupee derivatives. Earlier this month, the RBI had put a cap on banks in terms of offering rupee non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) contracts to resident and non-resident clients when the domestic currency was hitting record lows.
Amit Pabari, Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors noted that the central bank by allowing genuine hedging flows from importers and exporters to resume is restoring normal market function. However he added that by keeping limits like the $100 million cap on net open positions, it is ensuring that speculative excess does not creep back in.
He added, “With more freedom for hedging, dollar demand is likely to increase in the near term, especially from importers rushing to cover exposures. And that adds another layer of pressure on the rupee.”
2. Uncertainty over US-Iran tensions
Geopolitical uncertainty over the West Asia conflict continues to cap gains for the currency, keeping sentiment weak for emerging market currencies like the rupee.
“What’s making markets uneasy is not just the conflict but the lack of clarity. The temporary ceasefire, which expires this week, seems fragile,” Pabari said.
As per reports by Reuters, Tehran and Washington are considering another round of peace talks in Islamabad, as the US blockade over the Gulf of Oman remains in place. However, uncertainty continues to persist as the crucial trade route, the Strait of Hormuz, remains largely closed, disrupting the world’s energy flows.
The waterway passage transits nearly 20% of the world’s global petroleum liquids.
3. Wild swings in oil prices weigh on rupee
On Friday, April 17, Iran announced the reopening of the Hormuz route, but just a day later, on Saturday, April 18, Tehran reversed its decision, closing the route again in response to the United States not lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
This caused wild swings in oil prices, which rose by over 10% in the next session. Brent crude futures are back above the $90/bbl level, trading near the $94/bbl mark, while US crude futures, West Texas Intermediate, are quoted near the $86/bbl level.
This added to the pressure on the Indian rupee as it increased the demand for dollars. “For India, this is where the story becomes personal. Higher oil prices mean higher import bills. And higher import bills mean more demand for dollars—a simple equation, but one that consistently weighs on the rupee,” Pabari highlighted.
Outlook for Rupee
In the near term, Pabari expects USD/INR to find a base in the 92.20–92.50/$ range. “However, as uncertainty lingers, the pair could gradually move higher towards 93.50–94/$ as markets rebuild directional bias,” he adds.
Here are the three major factors that are impacting the currency’s movement today –
1. RBI relaxed foreign exchange derivative rules
On Monday, the RBI partially rolled back restrictions on rupee derivatives. Earlier this month, the RBI had put a cap on banks in terms of offering rupee non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) contracts to resident and non-resident clients when the domestic currency was hitting record lows.
Amit Pabari, Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors noted that the central bank by allowing genuine hedging flows from importers and exporters to resume is restoring normal market function. However he added that by keeping limits like the $100 million cap on net open positions, it is ensuring that speculative excess does not creep back in.
He added, “With more freedom for hedging, dollar demand is likely to increase in the near term, especially from importers rushing to cover exposures. And that adds another layer of pressure on the rupee.”
2. Uncertainty over US-Iran tensions
Geopolitical uncertainty over the West Asia conflict continues to cap gains for the currency, keeping sentiment weak for emerging market currencies like the rupee.
“What’s making markets uneasy is not just the conflict but the lack of clarity. The temporary ceasefire, which expires this week, seems fragile,” Pabari said.
As per reports by Reuters, Tehran and Washington are considering another round of peace talks in Islamabad, as the US blockade over the Gulf of Oman remains in place. However, uncertainty continues to persist as the crucial trade route, the Strait of Hormuz, remains largely closed, disrupting the world’s energy flows.
The waterway passage transits nearly 20% of the world’s global petroleum liquids.
3. Wild swings in oil prices weigh on rupee
On Friday, April 17, Iran announced the reopening of the Hormuz route, but just a day later, on Saturday, April 18, Tehran reversed its decision, closing the route again in response to the United States not lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
This caused wild swings in oil prices, which rose by over 10% in the next session. Brent crude futures are back above the $90/bbl level, trading near the $94/bbl mark, while US crude futures, West Texas Intermediate, are quoted near the $86/bbl level.
This added to the pressure on the Indian rupee as it increased the demand for dollars. “For India, this is where the story becomes personal. Higher oil prices mean higher import bills. And higher import bills mean more demand for dollars—a simple equation, but one that consistently weighs on the rupee,” Pabari highlighted.
Outlook for Rupee
In the near term, Pabari expects USD/INR to find a base in the 92.20–92.50/$ range. “However, as uncertainty lingers, the pair could gradually move higher towards 93.50–94/$ as markets rebuild directional bias,” he adds.