To steady rupee, RBI’s forex interventions surge to $26 billion between Sept and Nov 2025
November 27, 2025
RBI's forex interventions soar to $26 billion as the Indian rupee weakens amid trade war uncertainties from September to November 2025.
The rupee has been extremely weak this year, losing 6.5 per cent since May. While the RBI tapered its intervention in the rupee spot markets after the first quarter of 2025, forex interventions have once again increased since September.
According to Bloomberg’s forex intervention estimates, the RBI’s forex interventions amount to $26.31 billion between September 1 and November 15. But experts say that this kind of depreciation and regulatory support is common during trade wars.
Net dollar sales
Bloomberg estimates show that the central bank sold $9.3 billion in October and $5.6 billion in the first half of November. RBI’s official data, which is released with a six-week lag, show that the central bank’s net dollar sales amounted to $9.6 billion in September and the total intervention in the first nine months of 2025 amounted to $21.8 billion. This is 77 per cent higher than the net sales of $12.3 billion in the whole of 2024 but only half of the net dollars sold in 2022.
“Whenever there is a trade war, the currency tends to depreciate sharply, this was seen during the US-China trade war too, when the yuan was allowed to depreciate. The ongoing tariff related uncertainty is leading to this depreciation. But once a trade deal is struck, the rupee could begin appreciating,” says Anindya Banerjee, head of research, currency, commodity and interest rates, Kotak Securities.
“In a world fraught with geopolitical risks, it becomes imperative for regulators to respond through market intervention. RBI is doing the same by buying and selling dollars to keep the rupee within a range to keep exports competitive and imports reasonably cheap,” says Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Advisory Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat.
Volatility spikes
The Indian currency was on a relatively strong wicket between February and April when there was hope that the government will be able to forge a deal with the US government on reciprocal tariffs. The slide began in May, when the first leg of tariff was imposed and intensified from August.
RBI’s net dollar sales had been very high at $55.8 billion between October 2024 and January 2025. But the central bank had reduced direct intervention in spot market and used forwards market to stabilise the currency since March 2025. Net short positions in the forwards market, amounted to $-59.4 billion towards the end of September 2025.
Besides this, the RBI was also holding $1.6 billion net short positions in exchange traded dollar futures towards the end of September.
With the Indian macros being relatively good, rupee could reverse its trajectory soon, say experts. “I expect rupee to start appreciating next year because it is quite undervalued currently,” says Banerjee.
Published on November 27, 2025
According to Bloomberg’s forex intervention estimates, the RBI’s forex interventions amount to $26.31 billion between September 1 and November 15. But experts say that this kind of depreciation and regulatory support is common during trade wars.
Net dollar sales
Bloomberg estimates show that the central bank sold $9.3 billion in October and $5.6 billion in the first half of November. RBI’s official data, which is released with a six-week lag, show that the central bank’s net dollar sales amounted to $9.6 billion in September and the total intervention in the first nine months of 2025 amounted to $21.8 billion. This is 77 per cent higher than the net sales of $12.3 billion in the whole of 2024 but only half of the net dollars sold in 2022.
“Whenever there is a trade war, the currency tends to depreciate sharply, this was seen during the US-China trade war too, when the yuan was allowed to depreciate. The ongoing tariff related uncertainty is leading to this depreciation. But once a trade deal is struck, the rupee could begin appreciating,” says Anindya Banerjee, head of research, currency, commodity and interest rates, Kotak Securities.
“In a world fraught with geopolitical risks, it becomes imperative for regulators to respond through market intervention. RBI is doing the same by buying and selling dollars to keep the rupee within a range to keep exports competitive and imports reasonably cheap,” says Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Advisory Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat.
Volatility spikes
The Indian currency was on a relatively strong wicket between February and April when there was hope that the government will be able to forge a deal with the US government on reciprocal tariffs. The slide began in May, when the first leg of tariff was imposed and intensified from August.
RBI’s net dollar sales had been very high at $55.8 billion between October 2024 and January 2025. But the central bank had reduced direct intervention in spot market and used forwards market to stabilise the currency since March 2025. Net short positions in the forwards market, amounted to $-59.4 billion towards the end of September 2025.
Besides this, the RBI was also holding $1.6 billion net short positions in exchange traded dollar futures towards the end of September.
With the Indian macros being relatively good, rupee could reverse its trajectory soon, say experts. “I expect rupee to start appreciating next year because it is quite undervalued currently,” says Banerjee.
Published on November 27, 2025