Stock market outlook: Investors to track RBI policy and US tariffs; FII flows, rupee weakness to influence trend in holiday
September 28, 2025
India Business News: Indian equities face a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week, with the RBI's October 1 policy decision, US-India trade talks, and global cues steering ma
Indian equities face a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week, with the RBI's October 1 policy decision, US-India trade talks, and global cues steering market sentiment. Investors will also track industrial production data and September derivatives expiry for volatility. Last week saw significant market declines across sectors, influenced by FPI flows and tariff developments.
Indian equities are set for a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week in which the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision, tariff-related developments and global cues will steer market sentiment, analysts said. Trading will remain shut on Thursday for Dussehra and Gandhi Jayanti. Alongside the RBI’s October 1 rate decision, investors will track key macro data such as industrial production and HSBC manufacturing PMI, PTI reported. The expiry of September derivatives contracts is expected to add to market volatility. “Markets step into a data-heavy week, where both domestic and global cues will dictate momentum. On the domestic front, industrial production data and the RBI’s policy decision will be in focus, along with the expiry of September derivatives contracts, which could add to volatility. Globally, updates on the US–India trade deal will be closely tracked,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, quoted PTI. The Commerce Ministry said on Friday that India and the US have decided to continue negotiations for an early conclusion of a bilateral trade pact. “At this point, all eyes are on US–India trade relations for a possible relief rally. On the domestic front, the upcoming RBI policy on 1st October is crucial, with the street divided on whether a rate cut will materialise. IIP data and festive season sales updates will also be important triggers,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart. Global developments including US macro data, dollar index movement and crude oil prices will shape near-term direction. Above all, analysts said foreign portfolio investor flows remain the key determinant for market trend. Last week, the Sensex tumbled 2,199.77 points or 2.66 per cent while the Nifty dropped 672.35 points or 2.65 per cent, led by broad-based declines across sectors. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said IT stocks came under pressure on concerns over rising H-1B visa costs and Accenture’s subdued outlook, while pharma counters sold off sharply on fresh US tariffs on Indian drugs. “Mid- and small-cap stocks corrected more sharply than large caps, reflecting stress from their stretched valuations. The rupee continued to weaken, weighed down by FII outflows and geopolitical risks,” Nair added. Gold, meanwhile, sustained its safe-haven appeal amid global trade tensions, a falling rupee, steady central bank purchases and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said, “In terms of macro-economic data, markets will track RBI’s interest rate decision on October 1st, the US consumer confidence data and manufacturing PMI of India, China and the US.”
End of Article
Follow Us On Social Media
Indian equities are set for a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week in which the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision, tariff-related developments and global cues will steer market sentiment, analysts said. Trading will remain shut on Thursday for Dussehra and Gandhi Jayanti. Alongside the RBI’s October 1 rate decision, investors will track key macro data such as industrial production and HSBC manufacturing PMI, PTI reported. The expiry of September derivatives contracts is expected to add to market volatility. “Markets step into a data-heavy week, where both domestic and global cues will dictate momentum. On the domestic front, industrial production data and the RBI’s policy decision will be in focus, along with the expiry of September derivatives contracts, which could add to volatility. Globally, updates on the US–India trade deal will be closely tracked,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, quoted PTI. The Commerce Ministry said on Friday that India and the US have decided to continue negotiations for an early conclusion of a bilateral trade pact. “At this point, all eyes are on US–India trade relations for a possible relief rally. On the domestic front, the upcoming RBI policy on 1st October is crucial, with the street divided on whether a rate cut will materialise. IIP data and festive season sales updates will also be important triggers,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart. Global developments including US macro data, dollar index movement and crude oil prices will shape near-term direction. Above all, analysts said foreign portfolio investor flows remain the key determinant for market trend. Last week, the Sensex tumbled 2,199.77 points or 2.66 per cent while the Nifty dropped 672.35 points or 2.65 per cent, led by broad-based declines across sectors. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said IT stocks came under pressure on concerns over rising H-1B visa costs and Accenture’s subdued outlook, while pharma counters sold off sharply on fresh US tariffs on Indian drugs. “Mid- and small-cap stocks corrected more sharply than large caps, reflecting stress from their stretched valuations. The rupee continued to weaken, weighed down by FII outflows and geopolitical risks,” Nair added. Gold, meanwhile, sustained its safe-haven appeal amid global trade tensions, a falling rupee, steady central bank purchases and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said, “In terms of macro-economic data, markets will track RBI’s interest rate decision on October 1st, the US consumer confidence data and manufacturing PMI of India, China and the US.”
End of Article
Follow Us On Social Media