Rupee slides to 94 against US dollar: Is crude oil the biggest risk right now?
April 23, 2026
Rupee faces mounting pressure as oil prices soar and RBI steps in
The rupee opened weaker on Thursday, slipping 0.2% to 94.0050 against the US dollar, compared with its previous close of 93.7950. The fall comes as crude oil prices surged again, crossing the $100 mark and putting fresh pressure on the currency.
At around 9:30 AM, Brent crude was trading near $103.42 per barrel, up 1.48%, while WTI crude was at $94.59, up 1.75%. The sharp rise in oil prices is one of the main reasons behind the rupee’s weakness.
Brent crude has now moved back above $100 for the first time in over two weeks. The rise has been driven by stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States, along with continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.
ANZ Bank noted that the situation appears to be a case of brinkmanship, with both sides holding their ground. The bank warned that each day the waterway remains disrupted increases the risk of supply shortages and inflation.
RELIEF RALLY FADES
The rupee has already fallen nearly 1% this week and has slipped well past its recent highs of around 92.50. That earlier rise was largely supported by measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in late March and April.
Market participants now believe that the relief rally has ended.
“We expect 94 to be taken out right at the open,” a currency trader at a private sector bank told Reuters. The trader added that the earlier move from 95 to 92.50 was a short-term recovery, and with oil now above $100, that trend has reversed.
Traders said the RBI has been selling dollars over the past few sessions to slow the rupee’s fall. However, the impact has been limited.
The currency is facing strong dollar demand from oil companies, while overall dollar supply in the market remains tight. This has made it difficult for the RBI to fully control the decline.
While the intervention has helped reduce the pace of the fall, it has not been able to stop the broader downward trend.
WILL RUPEE CONTINUE FALL?
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said rising oil prices and global uncertainty are key factors weighing on the rupee.
“Rising crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept pressure on the currency. The weakness is also linked to the RBI’s partial rollback of earlier forex curbs, which has eased restrictions on derivative trades and reduced some of the earlier support for the rupee,” he said.
He added that the US dollar index remains steady near 98, and uncertainty around US–Iran developments continues to keep markets cautious.
“In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 93.25–94.50, with direction largely driven by crude prices and geopolitical updates,” Trivedi said.
With crude oil prices rising and geopolitical tensions still high, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
Much will depend on how oil prices move and whether there is any progress in global developments, especially around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. For now, the currency appears to be tracking oil closely, with limited support despite RBI intervention.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)
- Ends
At around 9:30 AM, Brent crude was trading near $103.42 per barrel, up 1.48%, while WTI crude was at $94.59, up 1.75%. The sharp rise in oil prices is one of the main reasons behind the rupee’s weakness.
Brent crude has now moved back above $100 for the first time in over two weeks. The rise has been driven by stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States, along with continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.
ANZ Bank noted that the situation appears to be a case of brinkmanship, with both sides holding their ground. The bank warned that each day the waterway remains disrupted increases the risk of supply shortages and inflation.
RELIEF RALLY FADES
The rupee has already fallen nearly 1% this week and has slipped well past its recent highs of around 92.50. That earlier rise was largely supported by measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in late March and April.
Market participants now believe that the relief rally has ended.
“We expect 94 to be taken out right at the open,” a currency trader at a private sector bank told Reuters. The trader added that the earlier move from 95 to 92.50 was a short-term recovery, and with oil now above $100, that trend has reversed.
Traders said the RBI has been selling dollars over the past few sessions to slow the rupee’s fall. However, the impact has been limited.
The currency is facing strong dollar demand from oil companies, while overall dollar supply in the market remains tight. This has made it difficult for the RBI to fully control the decline.
While the intervention has helped reduce the pace of the fall, it has not been able to stop the broader downward trend.
WILL RUPEE CONTINUE FALL?
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said rising oil prices and global uncertainty are key factors weighing on the rupee.
“Rising crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept pressure on the currency. The weakness is also linked to the RBI’s partial rollback of earlier forex curbs, which has eased restrictions on derivative trades and reduced some of the earlier support for the rupee,” he said.
He added that the US dollar index remains steady near 98, and uncertainty around US–Iran developments continues to keep markets cautious.
“In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 93.25–94.50, with direction largely driven by crude prices and geopolitical updates,” Trivedi said.
With crude oil prices rising and geopolitical tensions still high, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
Much will depend on how oil prices move and whether there is any progress in global developments, especially around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. For now, the currency appears to be tracking oil closely, with limited support despite RBI intervention.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)
- Ends