RBI MPC Meet April 2026: Central Bank Likely to Hold Rates Amid Oil, Inflation Risks
April 05, 2026
RBI MPC led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra meets April 6 to 8 amid West Asia conflict, high oil and weak rupee, SBI Research sees rates on hold as inflation and external risks rise
RBI MPC led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra meets April 6 to 8 amid West Asia conflict, high oil and weak rupee, SBI Research sees rates on hold as inflation and external risks rise
RBI MPC Meet This Week: The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra is scheduled to meet from April 6 to 8, against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty driven by the ongoing West Asia conflict, rising crude oil prices, weakening rupee and concerns over energy supply disruptions. This is the first RBI MPC meet for the fresh fiscal year of 2026-27.
The meeting comes at a time when geopolitical tensions have intensified volatility in global markets, pushing up commodity prices and raising fresh concerns around inflation. For India, these developments pose risks through higher imported inflation, currency pressures, and potential disruptions in energy supplies.
The outcome of the policy will be closely tracked by investors and economists for cues on how the central bank plans to navigate the evolving macroeconomic landscape.
SBI Research flags inflation, external risks; expects RBI to stay cautious
According to SBI Research, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a status quo on policy rates in the upcoming MPC meeting, as the global situation remains fluid and uncertain.
“As the situation is still evolving, we expect RBI to maintain status quo in the upcoming policy," the report said, adding that this will be the first policy review after the escalation of the West Asia conflict.
The report underscored that disruptions in global energy markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have led to a sharp spike in crude oil prices, with rates holding above $100 per barrel. This, it said, marks one of the most severe disruptions since the 1973 oil crisis.
Highlighting the domestic impact, SBI Research noted that the rupee has weakened past Rs 93 per dollar, while imported inflation has already reached 5.4 percent and is expected to rise further. “Imported inflation… is expected to increase considerably further," the report said.
It warned that CPI inflation could remain above 4.5 percent for the next three quarters, especially if weather-related risks such as a potential Super El Nino intensify price pressures.
On the external front, the report flagged rising vulnerabilities, noting that FY26 has seen the highest foreign institutional investor outflows at $16.6 billion since 1991. It also projected that India’s balance of payments could remain in deficit in FY27.
Given these risks, SBI Research expects the RBI to tread carefully in its policy communication. “As the first policy since the starting of war, RBI would be much careful in communicating its position," the report added.
RBI MPC Meet This Week: The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra is scheduled to meet from April 6 to 8, against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty driven by the ongoing West Asia conflict, rising crude oil prices, weakening rupee and concerns over energy supply disruptions. This is the first RBI MPC meet for the fresh fiscal year of 2026-27.
The meeting comes at a time when geopolitical tensions have intensified volatility in global markets, pushing up commodity prices and raising fresh concerns around inflation. For India, these developments pose risks through higher imported inflation, currency pressures, and potential disruptions in energy supplies.
The outcome of the policy will be closely tracked by investors and economists for cues on how the central bank plans to navigate the evolving macroeconomic landscape.
SBI Research flags inflation, external risks; expects RBI to stay cautious
According to SBI Research, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a status quo on policy rates in the upcoming MPC meeting, as the global situation remains fluid and uncertain.
“As the situation is still evolving, we expect RBI to maintain status quo in the upcoming policy," the report said, adding that this will be the first policy review after the escalation of the West Asia conflict.
The report underscored that disruptions in global energy markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have led to a sharp spike in crude oil prices, with rates holding above $100 per barrel. This, it said, marks one of the most severe disruptions since the 1973 oil crisis.
Highlighting the domestic impact, SBI Research noted that the rupee has weakened past Rs 93 per dollar, while imported inflation has already reached 5.4 percent and is expected to rise further. “Imported inflation… is expected to increase considerably further," the report said.
It warned that CPI inflation could remain above 4.5 percent for the next three quarters, especially if weather-related risks such as a potential Super El Nino intensify price pressures.
On the external front, the report flagged rising vulnerabilities, noting that FY26 has seen the highest foreign institutional investor outflows at $16.6 billion since 1991. It also projected that India’s balance of payments could remain in deficit in FY27.
Given these risks, SBI Research expects the RBI to tread carefully in its policy communication. “As the first policy since the starting of war, RBI would be much careful in communicating its position," the report added.